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Niall McLaren's avatar

Another reader asked: "What do you predict will happen to Taiwan? And what will USA do if Taiwan taken by China?"

On Jan 1st 1979, the US recognised the PRC as the sole legitimate government of China, which includes Taiwan as a province of China proper. In that sense, Taiwan has already been "taken" by China, which sees it as a rebellious province. In international law, it is illegal for foreign countries to supply arms to provinces or states of a recognised nation.

I would expect that in the unlikely event of China using force to subdue Taiwan, the US would do nothing, mainly because there is nothing they can do but also since doing anything would poison relations for a hundred years at least (unlike the West, the Chinese have long memories).

As for the excitement of the first Chinese vessels to sail near Australia in at least 600 years, see this detailed commentary (have to copy and paste, I can't put links in comments section)

https://johnmenadue.com/the-chinese-invasions-begins-anti-china-media-watch/

Should not be forgotten that when the KMT escaped to Taiwan in 1949, the locals were very unhappy with the ultra-rightist regime and tried to resist. Chiang Kai-shek ordered massive reprisals, see Wikipedia: White Terror (Taiwan), which continued for years. Same thing happened in South Korea when the American puppet Rhee Syngman ordered massacres of opponents, see Wikipedia: List of massacres in South Korea.

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Wabi Sabi's avatar

what about the fact that Taiwan makes all the high end chips and semiconductors for all our internet of things? Is USA aiming to rapidly build capacity and get rare earths out of Ukraine. I have share in Lynas which hasn't been doing well, partly as China flooding market with cheaper rare earths. Taiwanese people want independence - and most countries current borders only formed in the mid 1900s onwards.

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Wabi Sabi's avatar

Plus are you favouring China - with its 700 000 000 security cameras - I don't think you would last more than a few hours before being sent to be re-educated with your outspoken views on various matters!

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Niall McLaren's avatar

Will reply next week.

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Denis Egidis's avatar

So why Taiwan is not defended by th US ?

And why China does military exercises close opposite Australia ?

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